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Flashy Pixels Issue 9: How Movie Studios Use Social Media to Predict Box Office Success
Summer is approaching, and Hollywood is once again unleashing a barrage of big-budget spectacles, where colossal robots clash with spandex-clad heroes over the fate of a glowing orb. However, rather than diving into this summer’s offerings, we will look at the summer of 2025 as next summer, two major studios will put superhero fatigue to the test.
Disney plans to unveil its fresh take on The Fantastic Four comic book series, while Warner Bros. Discovery, the winner for the conglomerate with the most cumbersome name, plans to release a new Superman film. Both studios anticipate the adaptations to be massive tentpole productions, expecting them to spawn sequels, spin-offs, and expansive franchises. Over the past two decades, superhero films have dominated the box office, sparking concerns that they might eclipse all other genres. However, this trend has shown signs of waning recently, with superhero movies not packing theaters as they did a few years ago. In light of this shift, these studios are keen to gauge the market's interest before next summer’s releases.
On Valentine's Day, a full sixteen months before the movie’s release, Disney shared a drawing featuring the four members of The Fantastic Four celebrating the holiday under a banner and collection of red and pink balloons. Not to be outdone, Warner Bros. Discovery followed suit a few months later, revealing a single shot from their upcoming Superman reboot. The image shows the man of steel pulling on his bright red boots, framed by a colorful explosion in the background. These early teases aren’t just about drumming up excitement. They’re strategic moves to gauge consumer interest. The engagement these posts generate will help studios decide on marketing investments. Considering that about a third of a blockbuster's budget typically goes towards marketing, accurately measuring demand helps ensure the project's profitability. High engagement indicates strong audience interest and suggests that an aggressive marketing push could yield a high return on investment. Conversely, lukewarm responses might prompt a more conservative approach, helping to avoid overspending on a film that may not attract large audiences.
The studios analyze three metrics from the social media response to gauge potential success. First, they measure the total volume of engagement, including how many people viewed, interacted with, and shared the promotional post. Second, they evaluate the overall sentiment behind those interactions to ensure a positive, excited response rather than negative criticism. Finally, they examine whether the post's reach extended beyond the core existing fanbase, as mainstream appeal beyond devoted fans is crucial to joining the coveted billion-dollar club.
Past box office performance used to be the best predictor of a movie's success, but Warner Bros. Discovery learned that's not always reliable with the underperformance of the Aquaman sequel. After Aquaman made over a billion in 2018, the studio quickly greenlit a follow-up. However, audience interest had waned, and the sequel earned less than half of the original, demonstrating the need for more real-time audience tracking.
These box-office prediction tracking services have become big business over the last decade. Based on what these firms determine, movie studios will share projected box office returns on earnings calls to garner excitement and boost stock performance. During the Q1 2024 earnings call, Warner Bros. Discovery CEO David Zaslav attempted to convey his confidence in the upcoming franchise, stating that Superman and his fellow DC universe characters have been "largely underused" and they're "hard at work fixing that.”
So, who emerged victorious in this social media clash between Mr. Fantastic and the Man of Steel? Superman's post soared to ten million views on X, formerly Twitter, while The Fantastic Four’s Valentine’s Day image has less than three million. However, that might not tell the entire story, as the sentiment of the Superman post tended to skew more critical. One prevailing opinion across the responses is that Superman might need a new tailor to take in those baggy shoulders on his suit.